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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar on Monday and began another decline within the horizontal level of 1.3177–1.3272. A rebound from the 1.3164–1.3177 support level would favor the pound and could lead to a recovery toward 1.3272. Consolidation below the 1.3177–1.3272 support level would allow traders to anticipate a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.3025.
The market remains firmly bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Thus, bears continue to control the market. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh continue to support the dollar. A reversal of the current trend is now possible only above 1.3284 or after the formation of two bullish waves.
There was no significant news flow on Monday. Bears are not as strong against the pound as they are against the euro, and the British pound itself appears to be waiting for the euro's decline to end so that both currencies can begin a new advance against the US dollar. Over the past two weeks, the current dollar rally has been questioned repeatedly, as it appears excessive. However, under the current circumstances, the only option is to wait for it to end. The market appears to be pricing in all the factors supporting the US dollar at once. Once this process is complete, the euro and the pound will have all the advantages on their side. Among this week's key events are US inflation data, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and a speech by FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh. Of these events, only the Fed chair's speech is likely to trigger another significant market reaction. It is worth noting that almost all of Warsh's recent speeches have, in one way or another, led to further US dollar gains. Therefore, the Fed chair's speech on Friday, rather than inflation data, is likely to be the key event this week.
On the four-hour chart, GBP/USD has begun to retrace toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3277. A rejection at this level would favor a resumption of the decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3159. Consolidation above 1.3277 would give the pound hope for a modest recovery. No divergences are developing on any of the indicators today. The technical picture on the hourly chart is currently more convincing, so the hourly chart is the one to focus on.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among non-commercial traders became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,863, while the number of short positions rose by 10,399. The current gap between long and short positions stands at approximately 45,000 versus 143,000. The bears' advantage is widening again. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but it is now less clear-cut, as the news backdrop has changed over the past few months.
The bearish trend in the pound remains unconvincing. However, in the near term, much will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had properly begun. There is no guarantee that they will resume anytime soon.
US and UK Economic Calendar:
On October 13, the economic calendar contains no major releases. The economic backdrop is therefore expected to have no significant impact on market sentiment on Tuesday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible today following a rejection at 1.3272 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3164–1.3177. Buying is possible today following a rebound from the 1.3164–1.3177 level, with a target of 1.3272.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the four-hour chart.
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