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The GBP/USD pair extended its steady rise on Friday. The new leg of sterling strength began overnight with Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's remarks. Traders had clearly expected hawkish rhetoric and promises of more aggressive rate hikes in response to stronger-than-expected inflation prints on Wednesday and Thursday. Warsh, however, declined to comment on the future policy path, and the market interpreted that as reluctance to commit to higher hikes. As a result, the dollar weakened, even though Warsh has never announced concrete Fed actions in advance and FOMC decisions do not rest on his views alone. Nonetheless, disappointed dollar bulls helped push GBP/USD higher. In our view, technical factors drove Friday's advance more than fundamentals. Sterling had long traded inside three overlapping sideways channels (which we have highlighted repeatedly) and last week cleared liquidity at its recent lows by bouncing from the lower boundary of all three channels. From a technical standpoint, further upside is the more likely outcome. Just as the dollar's month-long rise often lacked firm justification, sterling's rally can likewise be unbacked — but in this case there are technical reasons to support it.
Technically, the pound has not only shown a corrective move but is moving toward a stronger, more durable uptrend. Because the sideways channels on the daily and weekly timeframes remain valid, it is logical to expect the pair to head toward their upper boundaries.
On the 5-minute chart, Friday produced four trading signals, and another signal arrived early Monday. The initial sell signal proved false, but the subsequent buy signal produced a good profit. Price cleared the 1.3301–1.3309 zone, enabling long positions, and a few hours later it reached and worked the 1.3369–1.3377 zone — traders could open short positions off that bounce and also take profits. On Friday evening and early Monday, price bounced twice from the 1.3301–1.3309 area.
COT reports for the pound show non-commercial traders have been net sellers for several months. The net position is negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand has remained relatively strong in 2026. The US–Iran conflict is formally paused but not resolved. The Fed's shifting policy stance also supports the dollar, and the ascending trend line has been breached — but that breach occurred within a flat, so we do not view the long-term uptrend as finished.
Over the long run, the dollar continues to weaken under Donald Trump-associated policies, as shown on the weekly chart. The trade war will continue in one form or another, and Trump's policies weaken the US currency both directly and indirectly. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (October 13), the "Non-commercial" group closed 1,100 contracts and opened 8,300 SELL contracts — a net reduction of 9,400 contracts in the group's net position over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD may be completing a downtrend that lasted a full month and had little solid justification. On the daily and weekly timeframes, price cleared liquidity at previous lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, the pound can be expected to rise at least to 1.3650, the upper boundary of the daily-chart sideways channel. The reasons for the pound's rise are no more compelling than those for the dollar's rise over the past month.
For October 19 we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. Senkou Span B (1.3231) and Kijun-sen (1.3252) may also provide signals. It is recommended to move the stop loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the intended direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day and should be considered when identifying trading signals.
No major releases are scheduled in the UK or the US today, so intraday volatility may be low and price action largely technical.
Traders may consider 1.3248–1.3252 as a target for short positions if price closes below the 1.3301–1.3309 area. A bounce from the 1.3301–1.3309 area would make the 1.3369–1.3377 area a target for long positions.
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