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A price test at 1.1254 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area 1.1221.
The week began with an unwelcome surprise for the euro. During Asian trading, the market's attention abruptly shifted to France, and protests there triggered a large sell-off in the single currency. Beginners should know the market dislikes political uncertainty in major countries. France has increasingly been a headache for the euro, and budget issues only add to the pressure. Officials, including Leseur on October 16, spoke of the need for fiscal discipline, and Lars Klingbeil called Paris's budget plans an important signal for markets; however, the protests show there is no domestic consensus. The sell-off was also set against the backdrop of US data released late last week that supported the dollar: US industrial production rose 0.7% in September versus 0.4% expected, capacity utilization climbed to 76.9% versus 76.5% expected, and net foreign purchases of US securities in August reached $279.2bn versus $75.2bn forecast. For the euro, this means both the economy and capital inflows support the dollar, while the eurozone lacks comparable arguments.
No major eurozone releases are expected in the first half of the day, so buyers have a chance to reclaim much of the recent loss. A pause in data often helps a currency recover after a sharp drop because no new disappointing numbers appear. Without reports, the market focuses on overall risk appetite and dollar dynamics. If demand for the dollar as a safe haven eases, the euro will have room to rally. Rebounds typically form during these quiet periods, as traders who bet on further declines start to close positions.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today near 1.1237 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1267. I plan to exit at 1.1267 and also sell EUR there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry. Expect euro gains today only as a recovery after the Asian sell-off. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.1221 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 1.1237 and 1.1267.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1221 (red line on the chart). Target 1.1192, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Strong renewed pressure on the pair can return at any time. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.1237 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.1221 and 1.1192.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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