19.08.201410:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Wave analysis for August 19, 2014

Gold price remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The decline has stopped. For our bullish expectations to be confirmed, we need to see soon a new upward move start and break above $1,313 first. Our target is at least $1,350.

Short-term trend is bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud. However, our elliott wave analysis shows that the decline is corrective while the rise from $1,280 was impulsive. That is why I expect at least one more impuslive move higher. Short-term resistance is found at $1,313 and short-term support at $1,294 and $1,280 is crucial.

Above, I show my two possible long-term elliott wave scenarios. They are opposite to one another but I believe they are equally possible. Despite one being bearish and one being bullish, both converge to the view that an upward move towards $1,350 is expected by both scenarios. Important resistance is found at $1,350. If we reach that level, we will then have a clearer picture regarding which scenario is stronger. $1,350 is my target as long as price is above $1,280.