18.12.201405:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 18, 2014

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 17.52% to 19.44, S&P 500 closed up 2.04% at 2,012.89 overnight) on a supportive Federal Reserve stance which modified its 'considerable time' language, saying it 'can be patient' about the timing of the first rate hike, and its forecast of a slower pace of Fed rate increases in 2015 once they start as well as on stabilization in Russia's currency from recent turmoil. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy, positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.07 versus 87.94 early Wednesday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.135% versus 2.071% late Tuesday). Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen in a subsequent press conference said the central bank was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings," and said she wanted to discourage the idea that the Fed would act only at meetings that are followed by news conferences, signaling the central bank could raise rates as early as its April 28-29 2015 meeting--the third meeting for 2015 which also doesn't include a news conference. That is sooner than the second half of 2015 that many investors currently expect. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the softer-than-expected U.S. November CPI of -0.3% on-month (versus forecast -0.1%) and Japan's exporter sales.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.10 and the second target at 119.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 115.50. The pivot point is at 117.

Resistance levels:
119.10
119.60
119.95

Support levels:
116.20
115.50
115