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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair resumed the fall of quotes on Wednesday and was near the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) by the end of the day. The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will work in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1919). Closing quotes at 76.4% will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next level of 1.1772. The information background of yesterday contributed to the growth of the US currency. Let me remind you that in recent weeks, traders have been happy to work out all the positive news from America. It all started with the Fed meeting, where the phrase was heard about the regulator's readiness to start discussing the curtailment of the economic assistance program. It ended with the ADP report, which showed a more significant increase in employees in the private sector than traders expected. At the end of June, the number of workers increased by 692 thousand with a forecast of 555 thousand.
Thus, dollar bulls once again believed that the US economy would continue to increase the pace of recovery and, most importantly, that this should happen due to the labor market's recovery. Since Jerome Powell at the Fed meeting noted that it is the labor market and its return to pre-crisis levels that is the number one goal, thus, now we should wait for strong data on Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, and then the dollar will be able to strengthen even more. Also, yesterday, a report on European inflation for June was released, and it showed that the consumer price index unexpectedly fell to 1.9% y/y. Let me remind you that in recent months, inflation has been growing almost everywhere, so most traders expected its growth to continue in the European Union. However, this report had almost no effect on the mood of traders.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). Thus, the pair's decline can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1782). The rebound of quotes will allow traders to count on some growth in the direction of the level of 1.1890. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the decline in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 30, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States contained one rather important report each, but traders worked out only the report from ADP. In general, the information background was quite strong yesterday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (07:00 UTC).
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:00 UTC).
EU - unemployment rate (09:00 UTC).
US - number of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 UTC).
On July 1, a fairly large amount of economic information will be released in America and the European Union. I recommend paying attention to the speech of Christine Lagarde and the US ISM manufacturing index.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bearish." Major players have closed 4,717 long contracts and opened 24,017 short contracts. Thus, the changes shown in the last report are severe. Of course, we should not forget that these serious changes are related to the reaction of traders to the Fed meeting, which took place on Wednesday before last. Therefore, the next COT report may be much calmer.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to sell the pair if the quotes closed at the level of 61.8% (1.1890) on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.1782. Now, these transactions should be kept open. I recommend buying the pair in case of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1782 on the 4-hour chart with the goal of 1.1890.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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