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The pressure on risk assets intensified yesterday in the second half of the U.S. session as speculation spread in the market about a possible U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict.
Tensions in the region have reached a critical point. Diplomatic efforts have stalled, and the rhetoric from both sides has become increasingly aggressive. The global community is holding its breath, fully aware of the potential consequences of an escalation. However, no decisions were made following the emergency meeting in the Middle East. It is expected that the U.S. may decide to intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict within the next 24–48 hours. This time frame is crucial for traders.
Eurozone CPI Data Due This Morning
Today, the eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May will be released in the first half of the day. The forecast stands at 1.9%. This figure will serve as an important indicator for the European Central Bank when determining the direction of future monetary policy. Low inflation could push the ECB to maintain its dovish stance, which could theoretically weaken the euro. However, any deviation from the expected figure may trigger market volatility. If actual inflation significantly exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the euro, as the market may begin to price in the possibility of a longer pause in the current rate-cutting cycle. Moreover, the trend is as important as the absolute value—if inflation shows a rising trend, even below 2%, the market may interpret it positively.
UK CPI Data Could Weigh on the Pound
Today, important data on the Consumer Price Index and key inflation indicators will be released for the British pound in the United Kingdom. If inflation comes in below forecasts, the pound will likely continue to decline, as the Bank of England would have fewer arguments to maintain current high interest rates.
Trading Strategy Guidance
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, a Mean Reversion strategy is most effective. Conversely, if the data greatly diverges from forecasts, a Momentum (breakout) strategy is more suitable.
Buy on a breakout above 1.1518 — target 1.1540 and 1.1580
Sell on a breakout below 1.1495 — target 1.1456 and 1.1405
Buy on a breakout above 1.3465 — target 1.3503 and 1.3533
Sell on a breakout below 1.3440 — target 1.3391 and 1.3343
Buy on a breakout above 145.15 — target 145.35 and 145.63
Sell on a breakout below 144.91 — target 144.51 and 144.05
Look for sell signals after a failed breakout above 1.1518, returning below this level
Look for buy signals after a failed breakout below 1.1486, returning above this level
Look for sell signals after a failed breakout above 1.3449, returning below this level
Look for buy signals after a failed breakout below 1.3417, returning above this level
Look for sell signals after a failed breakout above 0.6510, returning below this level
Look for buy signals after a failed breakout below 0.6476, returning above this level
Look for sell signals after a failed breakout above 1.3696, returning below this level
Look for buy signals after a failed breakout below 1.3649, returning above this level
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