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JPMorgan published an interesting report yesterday, estimating capital inflows into digital assets since the start of the year at roughly $50 billion. On an annualized basis, those inflows amount to about $66 billion — above the $52 billion pace recorded in May, but still roughly half last year's level. The report appeared amid a sell-off, and the contrast is striking: against yesterday's Bitcoin crash to $80,400 and $1.09 billion of liquidations, the bank says there is positive momentum approaching the fourth quarter.
The structure of inflows has changed significantly over the year. In H1, most money was driven by Bitcoin purchases by Strategy and venture financing for crypto projects, while ETFs were a drag — funds lost assets in May and June. Since August, ETF flows have improved and are now positive year-to-date, although cumulative results remain negative from the start of the drawdown that began on October 10, 2025. At the same time, institutional positions in CME futures have risen: they have exceeded their prior peak in Bitcoin and approached the October 2025 high in Ethereum.
A note of caution is warranted. The report says the firm expanded its methodology and now includes purchases by private corporate treasuries, private miners and state-linked entities, so comparisons with last year's figures require a caveat. Second, leverage on exchanges fell from post-October peaks but remains above historical averages, which is why yesterday's crash was accompanied by such large liquidations. Third, the picture this week is worse than in the report: spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $277.2 million in a single day on October 7, and Ethereum funds have recorded outflows every trading day since September 29. Glassnode data also show fresh capital lagging market gains: in the 30 days to October 5, inflows via ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasuries were about $4.9 billion, while realized market cap rose roughly $12.8 billion.
Other observations from the report concern the buyers behind the flows. Miners remain net sellers this year, but by a modest $1.8 billion. Public companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets — led by Strategy as the largest buyer — have gradually shifted financing from debt to preferred equity, increasing dividend payout burdens. Private Treasuries are buying less because they have less flexibility to raise funds and lower tolerance for price swings. Venture capital is concentrating in a smaller number of large rounds.
Clearly, while US yields remain near multi-year highs and oil reacts to every statement about war with Iran, ETF flows will swing with macro conditions. My base case: if yield pressure eases as it did yesterday, a return of inflows to ETFs would be the first confirmation of JPMorgan's thesis, and Q4 could indeed outperform Q3. The risk is that leverage remains high and near-term events, including the November 3 midterms, could knock the market down again before flows have time to firm up.
Technical outlook for Bitcoin
Buyers are currently targeting a return to $82,900, which would open a direct path to $84,100 and then up to $86,000 — a breakthrough above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $80,700. A drop back below that area could quickly send BTC toward $79,400, with a further target around $78,100.
Technical outlook for Ethereum
A clear hold above $2,526 opens a direct route to $2,600. The next target is the high around $2,679 — a break above which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,417. A return below that level could quickly send ETH toward $2,348, with a further target around $2,274.
What's on the chart
Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.
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